Election Thread [Flaming Allowed] [If yOu don't support

TotallyNotSatan · Post by **TotallyNotSatan** » Mon Apr 11, 2016 9:37 pm

The thing, though, is that we(since I volunteer for Sanders) is focusing too much on NY and not enough on MD and PA(along with the smaller CT/RI/DE), which vote a week later and have more combined delegates than NY. Those are going to be a doozy.

On a side note, I made a quick model for how Sanders can win. He's 204 delegates behind as of now, counting the recent MO/NV convention technical wins:
Apr. 19: NY(255 del): 52-48 Sanders, +10 delegates
Apr. 26: PA(189 del): 55-45 Sanders, +19 delegates(now +29)
Apr. 26: MD(95 del): 35-65 Clinton, -29 delegates(now +0)
Apr. 26: DE(21 del): 40-60 Clinton, -4 delegates(now -4)
Apr. 26: RI(24 del): 60-40 Sanders, +5 delegates(now +1)
Apr. 26: CT(55 del): 55-45 Sanders, +6 delegates(now +7)
May 3: IN(83 del): 65-35 Sanders, +25 delegates(now +32)
May 7: GU(7 del): 35-65 Clinton, -2 delegates(now +30)
May 10: WV(29 del): 65-35 Sanders, +9 delegates(now +39)
May 17: OR(61 del): 80-20 Sanders, +37 delegates(now +76)
May 17: KY(55 del): 65-35 Sanders, +17 delegates(now +93)
June 4: VI(7 del): 35-65 Clinton, -2 delegates(now +91)
June 5: PR(60 del): 50-50 San./Clin., +0 delegates(now +93)
June 7: CA(465 del): 60-40 Sanders, +93 delegates(now +186)
June 7: NJ(126 del): 45-55 Clinton, -13 delegates(now +173)
June 7: MT(21 del): 75-25 Sanders, +11 delegates(now +184)
June 7: SD(20 del): 70-30 Sanders, +8 delegates(now +192)
June 7: ND(18 del): 70-30 Sanders, +7 delegates(now +199)
June 7: NM(34 del): 65-35 Sanders, +10 delegates(now +209)
June 14: DC(20 del): 40-60 Clinton, -4 delegates(now +205!)

Post by **V900** » Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:46 am

Delegates getting stolen left and right in wyoming and colorado, smh

BEES · Post by **BEES** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 4:28 pm

I think if Clinton lost NY, she would collapse in later states. Losing her home state would be a sign of weakness. It would suggest big problems in November for her, if HER OWN CONSTITUENTS don't like her enough to give her a win. Plus with a month having gone by since Clinton last won a state, that looks bad. If Sanders loses NY on the other hand, this primary becomes more of a formality by the end. The delegate math would become too insurmountable.

Dems have to be thinking, what if Kasich is the R nominee? They've been idiots assuming Trump had things wrapped up. If the pubs have a brokered convention and the party heads pick Kasich... Clinton could be screwed. She gets murdered in polls against him. The two of them would literally agree on economic issues in the debates, both would alienate their party's base, and Clinton's baggage would weigh her down among moderates against the squeaky clean popular governor.

I get why they're afraid to run Sanders. I know why they're hesitant. That cowardice is destroying the country though. Dems can't keep avoiding fighting for what they actually believe. You've got to present your side if you want to convince anyone. Yeah his programs cost a lot. Yeah we'd feel the bern on tax day. Yeah, Republicans would make a huge stink about it, and air scary ads that call him the next Stalin or w/e, and we can expect polls between Sanders and R opposition to get closer by November... But party heads are acting like there's a big bad secret about him, and literally there's more likely to be 2 more Clinton scandals by October than any new things for Sanders. Literally what you see is what you get, and you'd be hardpressed to find a politician with a cleaner record.

succotash_54 · Post by **succotash_54** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:52 pm

I don't think that's the kind of fear the Dems have about Sanders.... I think they're just afraid that keep him tethered. Plain and simple. He was an I before he ran as a D, the D's benefit from corporate money just about as much as the R's do, and they won't be on board with his policy ideas.

Been reading a couple articles saying both conventions will be contested. Also, one said that if the R's do go to a contested convention, it'll likely be a Kasich/Rubio ticket. That would actually be pretty formidable.

TotallyNotSatan · Post by **TotallyNotSatan** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 6:09 pm

I really doubt that Kasich or Rubio would be on the ticket. Don't get me wrong, i'd rather them than Cruz or Trump, but seriously? The guy who dropped out and the guy who only won one state over the two frontrunners? There would be riots in the streets if that happened.

Post by **Venice Queen** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 6:23 pm

rubio is still capable of being a vice presidental candidate regardless of whether or not he dropped out of the race

and VP candidates aren't always people who ran against the eventual nominee (Sarah Palin and Al Gore are the examples I can think of off the top of my head)

TotallyNotSatan · Post by **TotallyNotSatan** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 6:49 pm

It is still theoretically possible for Rubio to win, yes. But astronomically unlikely.

Post by **Venice Queen** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 7:01 pm

no rubio cannot win the presidential race. he dropped out. he could be a VICE presidential candidate

Post by **V900** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 8:47 pm

You need to win 8 or more states to even be considered. Kaisch has won a grand total of one, that being his home state. This also excludes Rubio from running as president.

At least Kaisch actually won his home state. Poor Marco.

TotallyNotSatan · Post by **TotallyNotSatan** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:28 pm

It's not just win 8 states, by the way, it's get 50% of the delegates in 8 states. Trump hasn't 50% in one state yet(but NY is coming, along with the Acela corridor.) Cruz has 50% in 6 or 7 states, but I have a feeling this rule will be mostly ignored this election season.

succotash_54 · Post by **succotash_54** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:37 pm

You also need to keep in mind that the rules can be changed on a whim. They could literally begin the convention by changing the rules to tailor to their situation this time around and thus go out of their way to avoid having to nominate either of those two.

Post by **Venice Queen** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:53 pm

thus having their entire voter base hate them, Trump feel "slighted" and decide to run as a third party, and the democrats easily winning because the republican vote is split

I would enjoy seeing that happen, though :P

succotash_54 · Post by **succotash_54** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:03 pm

<blockquote class='quote_blockquote'><dl><dt>The_Angry_Goat</dt><dd>Apr 15 2016, 10:53 PM</dd></dl><div>thus having their entire voter base hate them, Trump feel "slighted" and decide to run as a third party, and the democrats easily winning because the republican vote is split

I would enjoy seeing that happen, though :P[/quote]The deadline will have passed to get his name on the ballot as an independent in pretty much every state, if he doesn't get the nomination at convention. He'll only be able to run as a write-in candidate.

Which won't matter either. The Republicans will care too much about stopping the Democrats from getting the White House, especially if it's either a "Socialist" or "The Queen Of Benghazi." The voters will rally around whoever gets the R nomination.

BEES · Post by **BEES** » Sat Apr 16, 2016 1:34 pm

<blockquote class='quote_blockquote'><dl><dt>TotallyNotSatan</dt><dd>Apr 15 2016, 06:09 PM</dd></dl><div>I really doubt that Kasich or Rubio would be on the ticket. Don't get me wrong, i'd rather them than Cruz or Trump, but seriously? The guy who dropped out and the guy who only won one state over the two frontrunners? There would be riots in the streets if that happened.[/quote]Dems can count their blessings that the only way for Kasich or Rubio to be on the Republican ticket would require disenfranchising millions of people, likely poisoning their candidacy. Dems were very foolish to stick with Hillary... a candidate who doesn't need *any* help from Republicans to be hated in her own party. How were they expecting her to win against candidates like that?

By the way, Sanders still holds preposterously huge leads in general election polls. And that is far more meaningful now in April than it was in January. Polls gain a lot more predictive power at this stage.

succotash_54 · Post by **succotash_54** » Sat Apr 16, 2016 9:46 pm

Dems should count their blessings if it really is either Cruz or Hairpiece who gets the nomination. Both Sanders and Lizardwoman currently hold leads in the polls over both of those two (Hairpiece trails spectacularly). Meanwhile, Kasich actually LEADS over Lizardwoman, and trails Sanders by a much slimmer margin than any other Republican has this entire season.